“How to win at roulette?” – seems to be a question that’s bugging a lot of people. Or rather: Is there a reliable way for winning at roulette? There are some roulette tricks and roulette tips out there, but they are, at best, ways to mitigate losses. If one is a bit more on the cynical side he could even assume, that casinos take part in ‘designing’ and publicising such tactics, to lure more players to their tables.
Casinos carefully calculate their edges, and as we can see, they do a very good job, as the casino gambling industry is quite a lucrative one – and usually not for the players.
Advantage gambling methods in roulette can only be approached one way legitimately, and that is through a mathematically proven method that aims to exploit small biases of roulette wheels which appear as results of imperfect manufacturing and/or the wear and tear of the wheel over long usage times. All the rest are just tactics that do not eliminate the house edge and therefore don’t guarantee that the player will have a positive balance on the long run.
UPDATE 2021: A commenter recommended another fantastic method to exploit roulette in casinos, but this time you don’t exploit the imperfections of the wheel, but instead, you take advantage of the inexperience of greenhorn croupiers. This is the copy of the original comment (slightly edited for brevity, and fixed typos, commenter was not a native English speaker):
“There is a strategy for roulette. But it only works with land-based casinos and live roulette (video roulette, electronic roulette etc. can´t work, needs a real physical roulette table, where the croupier throws the ball and it is not automated). I tried this out at the St. Marten casino in Cambodia. But the outcome, the advantage gained strongly depends on the croupier´s abilities. Inexperienced croupiers tend to throw the ball the same way (same direction, same force) most of the time. The chances the ball stops in the same half of the wheel, are pretty high, definitely higher than average. I haven’t made any calculations, but it was obvious even without them. I placed a few bets at the table, never lost a cent.
Just watch the croupier for a while and it’s pretty easy to see if they can be exploited, it becomes clear in about 30 minutes. Bet within that half of the wheel, and it’s easy money, already made $ thousands. But it only works with an inexperienced croupier. Sometimes easy to find, sometimes hard to find. Good luck.”
Now that it was brought to my attention, I feel foolish for not realizing this sooner. This is a fantastic and easy method to sort of “cheat” at roulette, without actually cheating. I definitely recommend and endorse this method too. It works in the live roulette casinos on the page as well, I have tired it out, in fact the live croupiers in these casinos tend be really bad at their job, and you can watch them without appearing suspicious, so it’s actually easier to exploit them than in a brick&mortar casino.
Summary:
- Roulette methods and systems that don’t work
- How to win at roulette using wheel bias – is it possible?
- What is wheel bias?
- Calculating wheel bias
- Roulette trick – a fast way to determine, whether a wheel bias can be suspected
- How to win at roulette exploiting wheel bias
- Roulette tips – obstacles you might face
- Where to practice wheel bias detection
- Wheel bias video tutorial
Methods that DON’T work – roulette techniques and strategies
Betting systems in casino games, that don’t use any extra insight about the game (like card counting does), only involve setting the amounts of bets in a certain way bear one collective trait: They do not work.
There are of course lots of roulette strategies out there, from lots of people claiming to know how to win at roulette. The truth is, these are just attempts to sell the system to others and make money (scams, never pay for a roulette system or app! – they don’t work, none of them do, don’t be scammed), or are just simply very faulty observations of excessive gamblers who desperately want to come up with an excuse for their gambling habit (or they are just really bad at math).
Here I collected some of the methods, that are mathematically proven NOT to work. Nevertheless some people believe – with near-religious fervour – that these are legit ways of winning at roulette. These are the most well known faulty roulette strategies, all the others are just slight variations of these.
The Martingale strategy
In short: betting on red or black all the time, and progressively increasing the bet after each loss. Martingale is a so-called progressive strategy and all progressive betting strategies are faulty, just like this one. Not working, increasing the bet doesn’t make you win more often, losing x amount of times in a row, also does not make you more likely to win during the next spin.
Flat betting
This is actually not a real system in the traditional sense. It involves playing the same bets all throughout the session. You won’t lose as much money with this one, as with the progressive systems, like Martingale, but nevertheless still leads to net losses on the long run, because roulette’s RTP is 97.3%.
Gambler’s fallacy
The gambler’s fallacy, also known as the Monte Carlo fallacy or the fallacy of the maturity of chances, is the mistaken belief that, if something happens more frequently than normal during some period, it will happen less frequently in the future. And the opposite of it: if something happens less frequently than normal during some period, it will happen more frequently in the future. Both are incorrect. Many gambling “strategies” are based on this flawed preconception, but the truth is, neither the roulette wheel nor any other gambling instrument has a “memory”. Each spin, throw, roll, whatever, is perfectly unconnected to previous or subsequent ones and perfectly random.
How to win at roulette using wheel bias – is it possible?
There is a debate going on, whether discovering and exploiting a biased roulette wheel is still possible nowadays given the advancements in the manufacturing technologies and built in bias monitoring systems in modern roulette wheels. It is certainly true, that these technologies exist and they make exploiting wheel bias successfully a lot harder. But there is a reason to believe, that in some cases it is still feasible:
- Most, but not all casinos have bias monitoring systems in place.
- Roulette wheels are expensive, so casinos use them for a long time – which increases the chance that a significant bias develops.
- Smaller venues, that lack the infrastructure of premiere providers might be more prone to operate biased second-hand, older wheels, and tend to do bias monitoring less frequently, if at all
- Even if a bias is noticed, it does not always result in direct action on the casino’s part, unless they notice someone taking advantage of it
Below I will give you a short overview on the advantage gambling method called wheel bias. It is not easy at all and if you want to learn how to consistently win at roulette this what you need:
- Diligence to track wheel results over enough time to get the requisite data for a representative statistical analysis.
- Statistical skills to examine your findings and determine, whether you can actually gain an edge acting on them.
- A know-how on how to exploit a discovered bias.
- Discipline, to stick with your tactics, till you actually realise profit (not gonna happen overnight).
- And lastly, an initial investment, most biases are minor and are only profitable in the long run.
Let’s get started.
Online casinos with live roulette
The following online gambling websites have live dealer blackjack, live poker and live roulette (roulette with a real, live croupier, and also live electronic roulette), therefore you can experiment with wheel bias and the other method in these online casinos (in fact, it’s easier, because you don’t have to act like a regular player, you can even take notes openly and analyze the wheel for hours):
Black Lotus Casino
- Get 200% match bonus, up to $600. Use the code: WELCOME600
- +$30 bonus. Use code: WINBLACK
Bonuses for existing players:
- 32 Free Spins on Sweet Success Code: CHEER1
- 32 Free Spins on Nordic Wild Code: CHEER2
- 32 Free Spins on Cosmopolitan Code: CHEER3
- 32 Free Spins on 7 Chakras Code: CHEER4
- 32 Free Spins on Le Chocolatier Code: CHEER5
- 32 Free Spins on Fairy Dust Forest Code: CHEER6
Playthrough requirements and wagering limitations
- Playthrough requirement: 40-60x for match bonuses and usually 60x for free spins and other bonuses, depends on the bonus check the casino's web page for the specific, up to date, current playthrough requirements and wagering limitations
Wagering limitation:
- 100% - Slots and Keno
- 50% - Roulette and Three Card Poker
- 25% - Baccarat
- 10% - Video Poker
- 5% - Blackjack, Craps
- 0% - Everything else
BGO
- 500 free spins
Playthrough requirements and wagering limitations
Playthrough requirement: 65x
Wagering limitation:
- Slots: 100%
- Roulette: 25%
- All Blackjack Games: 25%
- 3 Card Brag: 50%
- Casino Hold'em: 25%
- Baccarat: 0%
- Everything else: 0%
Bet Online Casino and Sports Book
- Welcome bonus, 100% up to $1,000 on your first three deposits! Use the code BOLCASINO
- 100% welcome match bonus up to 100% on your first deposit using Bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash, Ethereum, Litecoin or DASH. No code required.
Playthrough requirements and wagering limitations
Playthrough requirement: • Slot Games (progressive jackpot slots excluded) 100% • Roulette (All versions), Draw High-Lo, 3 Card Rummy 20% • Baccarat, Blackjack (American & European), Poker 3, Oasis Poker, Single Deck Blackjack, Triple Edge Poker, Caribbean Poker, Three Card Poker, Video Poker 10% • Pirate 21, Blackjack Super 7, Pai Gow, 21 Burn, Ride’m Poker, All forms of Keno, Red Dog, Pontoon, Top Card Trumps 5% • Craps, Live Casino, All Games with Progressive Jackpots, Virtual Racebook. Speciality games ie Keno’s and Scratcher game offered by Betsoft 0%
Wagering limitation:
- Any action on Baccarat, Roulette and Craps will not count towards the wagering requirement.
Betsson Casino and Sports Book
- Welcome bonus, 100% up to €100
- 101 free spins on your first deposit
- €5,000 every week for one lucky active returning player (no wagering limitation, no playthrough requirement)
US players can not register. Betsson has over 1500 games, the most games of any casino. You can read the review of Betsson casino here.
Playthrough requirements and wagering limitations
Playthrough requirement: No playthrough requirement for the extra weekly money. In case of the welcome bonus: • 100%: Slots • 10%: All Roulette (except Live), Caribbean Stud & Casino Stud Poker Games • 10%: All Casino Hold’Em, Red Dog, Pai Gow, Poker Games, Oasis Poker & Texas Hold’Em Poker Games • 5%: All BlackJack (except Live BlackJack), Baccarat, Video Poker, Pontoon, Beat Me, Punto Banco Games
Wagering limitation:
- The bonus cannot be wagered on the following games: 1429 Uncharted Seas, Aliens, Big Bang, Blood Suckers, Castle builder, Castle Builder 2, Champion of the Track, Dead or Alive, Devil´s Delight, Eggomatic, Epic Gems, Eye of the Kraken, Kings of Chicago, Pearls of India, Robin Hood, Scrooge, Sea Hunter, Super Monopoly Money, The Wish Master, Tower Quest, Wild Gambler, Wizard Shop, Zombies.
- Player from certain countries are not allowed use bonuses due to regular bonus abuse, check the casino's website for the ever changing up to date list.
If you don’t want to bet on roulette with real money, you can try the any of free to play roulettes here.
What is wheel bias?
In short: A biased roulette wheel is any wheel that gives results that are different from those could expected by chance. A wheel bias can occur as a result of many factors. Here are some roulette tips on how a wheel can be biased:
- An imperfectly balanced roulette wheel with a tilt so small that it’s invisible to human eyes might produce a statistically significant bias. Just as water flows to the lower places, the ball will favour the numbers on the side, toward which the axle of the wheel is bent.
- Loose frets: a fret that separates pockets from each other might loosen over time, due to the impact of the ball that occurs during natural usage. When the ball hits such loosened frets, it absorbs some of the force exerted and the ball doesn’t bounce as much. This is called “deadening” and it leads to ball tending to come to rest in specific areas more often than it would, if spins were completely random.
- Uneven deceleration of the wheel can also result in non-random winning numbers, although only if also combined with common or dominant ball drop point. This too is often invisible to the human eye, but a useful roulette trick for the sharp-sighted player could be to watch for a small change in the deceleration of the wheel when the zero is in a certain position.
Note, that some wheels are more susceptible to bias. Generally, older wheels are more bias-prone, partly as a result of inferior design and partly because larger usage times – common sense suggests, that a small initial bias gets worse over time, because the spins affect parts of the wheel unevenly. However, nowadays, in the better casinos, a biased wheel is extremely hard to find. But in smaller establishments, developing countries or in live roulette online casinos (they tend to have worse wheels than casinos) you can still find a few.
Calculating wheel bias
The possibility of a number winning is 1 in 37 on the standard European wheel (on an American wheel, it’s 1 in 38, you should NEVER play on an American wheel as the 00 pocket increase house edge and decreases RTP considerably). This means, a quite slim, 2,7% house edge (a number pays 35 times your bet, which means, after 37 spins you end up with 36 chips on average, if you always bet 1 chip, RTP=97.3%).
Going further along this line of thought, it’s easy to see, that the theoretical break-even point is when the probability of a number coming up is 1 in 36 and profitability starts at 1 in 35.
Firstly, even with a sample of 1000, statistical deviation can account for some seeming bias, so when analysing results you should aim for 1 in 32-33, or higher, probability for any given number. It’s important to repeat the analysis with a new sample, if the first one showed the possibility of a bias. See the table below on how the edge changes with changes in probability for individual numbers.
| Probability of an individual number | 1 in 37 | 1 in 36 | 1 in 35 | 1 in 34 | 1 in 33 | 1 in 32 | 1 in 31 | 1 in 30 | 1 in 29 | 1 in 28 | 1 in 27 | 1 in 26 | 1 in 25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Players’ edge for that number (RTP) | -2.7% (97.3%) | 0% (100%) | 2.9% (102.9%) | 5.9% (105.9%) | 9.1% (109.1%) | 12.5% (112.5%) | 16.1% (116.1%) | 20% (120%) | 24.1% (124.1%) | 28.6% (128.6%) | 33.3% (133.3%) | 38.4% (138.4%) | 44% (144%) |
Secondly, tracking numbers spun on a roulette wheel will likely yield messy results, and rather than identifying a number that comes up more often than others, you will likely see a group of numbers with non-random probabilities. Those are the numbers you should target, develop a strategy on how to place your bets on these numbers to get the most advantage.
Luckily, there are a variety of statistical tools that are easily accessible for calculating wheel bias from tracked results for players seeking to learn how to make money with roulette this way. Some are dedicated roulette analysis platforms, like this one but if you’re a more advanced stat person you can also use some general statistics software to support your analysis, like SPSS.
And remember, that every statistical result is an estimate, therefore use statistical methods, like chi-squared test and confidence intervals to evaluate your findings.
Roulette wheel bias calculator – a fast way to determine, whether a wheel bias can be suspected
Chi-squared test is a fast and easy way to determine, whether there is a chance that a wheel is biased. Here are the steps to perform the test:
- Find the expected frequency of every number under the assumption that the wheel is not biased, i.e. divide the spins by 37. If you have 1000 spins , the expected frequency is 1000/37 = 27.03.
- For every number from 0 to 36, calculate the difference between observed frequency and expected frequency.
- Let’s call this number Diff. Eg. Suppose the number 0 was spun 30 times, the Diff = 30-27.03=2.97. Suppose the number 1 was spun 20 times. The Diff for 1 is 20-27.03=-7.03.
Sum all the squares of the Diffs from 0 to 36 (remember the squares are always positive numbers). - Divide the result by the expected frequency (the same number as above, here it was 27.03).
- If the number is bigger than 59.89 (a value you have to look up in the chi-squared table, I wont go into details, but this is the method), it is 99% sure that the wheel is biased.
Update: The Roulette calculator – determining if there is a wheel bias with chi-squared test calculator is not accessible in an embedded form please click on the link to access it. You can only write in the “Write your numbers below” column, write the observed frequency of the number next to it (to the left, how many times it come up in your test) the calculator does the rest automatically, result is on the right at “Your chi square value”.
If the wheel bias calculator doesn’t work, use this one instead.
In the Roulette calculator you can type in your own tracked results, and it helps you determine, whether there is a possibility of a bias.
You can do this test with groups of numbers also, if you suspect the wheel is biased towards a group. You have to threat the groups as units for the chi squared test and calculate the frequency accordingly. If you identify 5 groups, for instance, then you have to go like this: 1000/5=200 is the expected frequency and you only calculate Diffs for the 5 groups. Than you divide their sum by 200 and choose the right value from the chi-squared table to compare your results against (15.086 for 99% accuracy).
This wont tell you how to win at roulette right away, but it is a nice roulette trick to determine whether you are on to something or not. Note, that you would need further analysis to determine how big is the bias and which numbers does the wheel “favour”.
How to win at roulette – exploiting wheel bias
Discovering wheel bias is one thing, and exploiting it is another, but you have to master both if you want to learn how to win at roulette reliably. Here are some general roulette tips for exploiting wheel bias:
- Manage your bankroll.
- Set win goals and loss limits.
- Even with a significant edge you’re bound for some losing streaks – make sure you calculate your bets taking into account your estimated edge and bankroll size – calculating ROI is also a good idea, if you know how to.
- Don’t get greedy, play it safe.
Roulette tips – obstacles you might face
Casinos usually keep themselves up-to-date on the techniques that have the potential to give players edge in their games. These are the most common practices utilized by casinos to counter exploitation:
- Most casinos have bias monitoring systems in place, therefore, if you discover a bias, it’s likely that the casino staff knows or will soon know about it too. This shrinks the window of opportunity to take advantage of the bias. Act fast.
- Some casinos change the wheels between tables to cut wheel tracking endeavours. If your casino does this too, you need to derive a way to find the tracked wheel across tables – you need to find some identifying idiosyncrasy on the wheel.
- Hanging around the roulette table with a notebook, you’re bound to draw suspicion. Subtlety is important. Although, it’s only considered a roulette trick and is not illegal, tracking results can get you banned from the casino nevertheless. (This not an issue if you play in live roulette online casinos.)
It is not at all a joyride to learn how to win at roulette, but if you have a keen eye for numbers, patience, enough funds and free time, then it could be an interesting, and if you’re lucky and tenacious, lucrative endeavour. I hope my roulette tips and roulette tricks helped you, or at least helped you to decide whether this advantage gambling method is for you or not. Don’t worry if it’s not for you, there are others, you can find the others here, maybe they are more to your liking (all of them require patience, practice and some mathematics though).
Online casinos with live roulette
The following online gambling websites have live dealer blackjack, live poker and live roulette (roulette with a real, live croupier, and also live electronic roulette), therefore you can experiment with wheel bias and the other method in these online casinos (in fact, it’s easier, because you don’t have to act like a regular player, you can even take notes openly and analyze the wheel for hours):
Black Lotus Casino
- Get 200% match bonus, up to $600. Use the code: WELCOME600
- +$30 bonus. Use code: WINBLACK
Bonuses for existing players:
- 32 Free Spins on Sweet Success Code: CHEER1
- 32 Free Spins on Nordic Wild Code: CHEER2
- 32 Free Spins on Cosmopolitan Code: CHEER3
- 32 Free Spins on 7 Chakras Code: CHEER4
- 32 Free Spins on Le Chocolatier Code: CHEER5
- 32 Free Spins on Fairy Dust Forest Code: CHEER6
Playthrough requirements and wagering limitations
- Playthrough requirement: 40-60x for match bonuses and usually 60x for free spins and other bonuses, depends on the bonus check the casino's web page for the specific, up to date, current playthrough requirements and wagering limitations
Wagering limitation:
- 100% - Slots and Keno
- 50% - Roulette and Three Card Poker
- 25% - Baccarat
- 10% - Video Poker
- 5% - Blackjack, Craps
- 0% - Everything else
BGO
- 500 free spins
Playthrough requirements and wagering limitations
Playthrough requirement: 65x
Wagering limitation:
- Slots: 100%
- Roulette: 25%
- All Blackjack Games: 25%
- 3 Card Brag: 50%
- Casino Hold'em: 25%
- Baccarat: 0%
- Everything else: 0%
Bet Online Casino and Sports Book
- Welcome bonus, 100% up to $1,000 on your first three deposits! Use the code BOLCASINO
- 100% welcome match bonus up to 100% on your first deposit using Bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash, Ethereum, Litecoin or DASH. No code required.
Playthrough requirements and wagering limitations
Playthrough requirement: • Slot Games (progressive jackpot slots excluded) 100% • Roulette (All versions), Draw High-Lo, 3 Card Rummy 20% • Baccarat, Blackjack (American & European), Poker 3, Oasis Poker, Single Deck Blackjack, Triple Edge Poker, Caribbean Poker, Three Card Poker, Video Poker 10% • Pirate 21, Blackjack Super 7, Pai Gow, 21 Burn, Ride’m Poker, All forms of Keno, Red Dog, Pontoon, Top Card Trumps 5% • Craps, Live Casino, All Games with Progressive Jackpots, Virtual Racebook. Speciality games ie Keno’s and Scratcher game offered by Betsoft 0%
Wagering limitation:
- Any action on Baccarat, Roulette and Craps will not count towards the wagering requirement.
Betsson Casino and Sports Book
- Welcome bonus, 100% up to €100
- 101 free spins on your first deposit
- €5,000 every week for one lucky active returning player (no wagering limitation, no playthrough requirement)
US players can not register. Betsson has over 1500 games, the most games of any casino. You can read the review of Betsson casino here.
Playthrough requirements and wagering limitations
Playthrough requirement: No playthrough requirement for the extra weekly money. In case of the welcome bonus: • 100%: Slots • 10%: All Roulette (except Live), Caribbean Stud & Casino Stud Poker Games • 10%: All Casino Hold’Em, Red Dog, Pai Gow, Poker Games, Oasis Poker & Texas Hold’Em Poker Games • 5%: All BlackJack (except Live BlackJack), Baccarat, Video Poker, Pontoon, Beat Me, Punto Banco Games
Wagering limitation:
- The bonus cannot be wagered on the following games: 1429 Uncharted Seas, Aliens, Big Bang, Blood Suckers, Castle builder, Castle Builder 2, Champion of the Track, Dead or Alive, Devil´s Delight, Eggomatic, Epic Gems, Eye of the Kraken, Kings of Chicago, Pearls of India, Robin Hood, Scrooge, Sea Hunter, Super Monopoly Money, The Wish Master, Tower Quest, Wild Gambler, Wizard Shop, Zombies.
- Player from certain countries are not allowed use bonuses due to regular bonus abuse, check the casino's website for the ever changing up to date list.
If you don’t want to bet on roulette with real money, you can try the any of free to play roulettes here.
Wheel bias video tutorial
There are barely any videos on wheel bias on YouTube, and this is the best I could find, it’s a segment from a documentary (a pretty old documentary) discussing wheel bias. But it illustrates at least the basics of wheel bias perfectly.
/If you’re not interested in how to win at roulette, but want to make money gambling some other way, check out my guide on how to make money like a professional gambler with advantage gambling methods./
Last updated: 2021-01-03
Good luck,
Gamble responsibly.
Hi simon, standard deviation number tells us how far a number o section is from average.
At 1000 trials you surely find 1 or 2 sectons hitting by 2 or 3 sd. Most due to random volatibity.
As we did not pick a section or number beforehand and we had 37 way to build a section we must add more data to check
And, for instance 3sd in a 6 -number-section at 1000 is a stronger chance than the same 3sd at 2000 or more.
They would probably even out with 4sd at 3000 .
There must be a math way to compare this data collection
As we get passed data and we put our eye in hot section we probably see positive trends working. We know that luck means fluctuation at range of -3 to +3 standard dev.
How do you see this realm?
“standard deviation number tells us how far a number o section is from average.”
It’s important to note that standard deviation is not a fixed number. Standard deviation is a quantity expressing by how much the members of a group differ from the mean value (expected value) for the group.
“At 1000 trials you surely find 1 or 2 sectons hitting by 2 or 3 sd. Most due to random volatibity.”
Yes, of course. It’s all about probability. There is a chance of that happening and if normal distribution applies (, which should apply in case of roulette except in case of wheel bias) you can easily calculate the probability of the results that will fall within +/- 1,2 sigma (93,6%).
“And, for instance 3sd in a 6 -number-section at 1000 is a stronger chance than the same 3sd at 2000 or more.
They would probably even out with 4sd at 3000 .”
I don’t really understand this part. I think this is what you are trying to say (I might be wrong):
A: 6 fixed numbers in a row, repeated 1000 times
B: 6 fixed numbers in a row, experiment repeated 2000 times
C: 6 fixed numbers in a row, experiment repeated over 3000 times
And you are saying that: the standard deviation of A > B, and it will even out at C.
Okay, so the standard deviation needs to be established first. First you establish the natural distribution of the system (in this case roulette) by running hundreds or thousands of experiments (in this case just simply playing roulette).. The average of these results will be the expected value.
Then you take the expected value and run tests (hundreds or thousands) using the 6 fixed roulette numbers. Then, you compare the numbers with the expected value you calculated and then you calculate the “deviation of results from the expected value (expressed in % of probability)” a.k.a standard deviation, and if that’s high or low enough (statistically significant as they say it), then you are onto something. In short, if the difference is significant from the expected value, then your technique works.
So, back to your question: the standard deviation of A is not necessarily higher than B, it can increase or decrease or stay very close to zero, but it does”even out” at C (it becomes more accurate the more times you repeat the experiment).
“As we get passed data and we put our eye in hot section we probably see positive trends working. We know that luck means fluctuation at range of -3 to +3 standard dev.
How do you see this realm?”
I’m not sure what’s the question here exactly but here is my answer.
First, luck does not mean a fluctuation between -3 and + 3 sigma, standard deviation is not limited to a range of -3 and +3, it only means that if there is no trend (positive or negative) then natural distribution applies (also called normal distribution), and when we talk about normal distribution we only investigate results between +3 and -3 sigma, because that represents 99,9% of the results. Nothing more.
And secondly, you are simply misunderstanding standard deviation. Please look up “standard deviation” and “normal distribution” on Wikipedia, it will explain it better than I can.
——
I hope this helps, thanks for the question. I understand that this is complicated. People don’t deal with standard deviation on a daily basis, most people don’t even know what it is. Still, I hope I could help.
Hi Simon, thanks for your answer.
Let me clarify it. We are talking about biased wheel detection. You must find a number/section that hit beyond 4 sd to start with.
You take 1000 trials on a french wheel, section 0 32 15 19 4 21 (6 numbers) hit 197 times(3sd), it only shows a regular fluctuation of a 6-number-section because we did not decide that these exact numbers would hit 197 or more. In case we stated 0 32 15 19 4 21 would hit 197 or more and after that we had this confirmation would mean a different thing(subjective probability?)
iIn the other case you focused on the only section hit by 3sd(there are at least 37 ways to create a 6-number-section)
As we add more data(1000 a day), we have got 547 hits at 3000 for the same 6 numbers, sd number is the same 3sd. Ths 3sd at 3000 is weaker that 3sd at 3000., why?
One of my questions was to know what 6number-frequency( or sd) should be equal to 3sd at 1000 for 6 number.
This subject we know is not in any book.
As 3sd at 1000 has positive or negative fluctuation working it takes strong math to find out true results
regards
ybot
Hi Simon, any comment about my last post?
regards, ybot
Your question makes no sense, and I won’t make the calculations. Sorry. Perhaps someone else visiting this website will. (That method is not working, and you are on the wrong track believe me).
Hi Simon, my questions are math related. After many years in this business I belive we must know the exact facts and probabilities. As i read your original post and info I guessed you were more involved in these issues. Warm regards
A few years have passed. Did something ever come out of your magical method? Just wondering. Or was it a dead end, as I suspect?