How to win at roulette is seems to be a question that’s bugging a lots of people. Or rather: Is there a reliable way for winning at roulette? There are some roulette tricks and roulette tips out there, but they are, at best, ways to mitigate losses. If one is a bit more on the cynical side he could even assume, that casinos take part in ‘designing’ and publicising such tactics, to lure more players to their tables.
Casinos carefully calculate their edges, and as we can see they do a very good job, as the casino gambling industry is quite a lucrative one – and usually not for the players.
The “How to win at roulette?” question can only be approached one way legitimately, and that is through a method that aims to exploit small biases of roulette wheels which appear as results of imperfect manufacturing and/or the wear and tear of the wheel over long usage times. All the rest are just tactics that do not eliminate the house edge and therefore guarantee, that the player will have a negative balance on the long run.
However, even this is not, by no means an easy-money scheme, but for those who are interested, this post offers some roulette tricks for discovering an exploiting wheel bias.
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Betting systems in casino games, that don’t use any extra insight about the game (like card counting does), only involve setting the amounts of bets in a certain way bear one collective trait: They do not work.
There are of course lots of roulette strategies out there, from lots of people claiming to know how to win at roulette. The truth is, these are ‘crafted’ whether in an attempt to sell the system to others and make money for the person behind them or are just simply very faulty observations of excessive gamblers who desperately want to come up with an excuse, that what they’re doing is not just simply wasting money.
Here I collected some of the methods, that are not mathematically proven by any means, nevertheless some people believe – with near-religious fervour – that these are legit ways of winning at roulette. These are the most basic preconceptions about gambling. Most all other strategies are based on these.
Theres is a debate going on, whether discovering and exploiting a biased roulette wheel is still possible nowadays given the advancements in the manufacturing technologies and built in bias monitoring systems in modern roulette wheels. It is certainly true, that these technologies exist and they make roulette tricks aiming to exploit wheel bias lot harder stunts to preform, but there is a reason to believe, that in some cases it is still feasible. For example:
Below I will give you a short overview on the advantage gambling method called wheel bias. It is not easy at all and if you want to learn how to win at roulette this way, you will need:
After reading this guide, you will probably still don’t know exactly how to win at roulette this way, but I will hand you some useful roulette tricks and roulette tips for discovering and exploiting wheel bias and point you into the right direction to educate yourself further on how to win at roulette finding and exploiting wheel biases.
Let’s get started.
In short: A biased roulette wheel is any wheel that gives results that are different from those expected by chance. A wheel bias can occur as a result of many factors. Here are some roulette tips on how a wheel can be biased:
Note, that some wheels are more susceptible to bias. Generally, older wheels are more bias-prone, partly as a result of inferior design and partly because larger usage times – common sense suggests, that a small initial bias gets worse over time, because the spins affect parts of the wheel unevenly. However nowadays, in the first world, a biased wheel is extremely hard to find, if not impossible.
The possibility of a number winning is 1 in 37 on the standard European wheel (on an American wheel, it’s 1 in 38, you should NEVER play on an American wheel as the 00 pocket increases the house edge). This means a quite slim, -2,7% house edge (a number pays 35 times your bet and your original bet, which means, after 37 spins you end up with 36 chips on average, if you always bet 1 chip).
Going further along this line of thought, it’s easy to see, that the theoretical break-even point is when the probability of a number coming up is 1 in 36 and profitability starts at 1 in 35.
Firstly, even with a sample of 1000, statistical deviation can account for few percent biases, so when analysing results you should aim for 1 in 32-33 or higher probabilities for numbers. It’s important to repeat the analysis with a new sample, if the first one showed the possibility of a bias. See the table below on how the edge changes with changes in probability for individual numbers.
|Probability of an individual number||1 in 37||1 in 36||1 in 35||1 in 34||1 in 33||1 in 32||1 in 31||1 in 30||1 in 29||1 in 28||1 in 27||1 in 26||1 in 25|
|Players’ edge for that number||-2.7%||0%||2.9%||5.9%||9.1%||12.5%||16.1%||20%||24.1%||28.6%||33.3%||38.4%||44%|
Secondly, life is not a vacuum experiment, neither is wheel bias analysis. Tracking numbers spun on a roulette wheel will likely yield messy results, and rather than identifying a number that comes up more often than others, you will likely see a group of numbers with non-random probabilities. Than you have to develop a strategy on how to place your bets on these numbers and how to win at roulette using these insights.
Luckily, there are a variety of statistical tools that are easily accessible for calculating wheel bias from tracked results for players seeking to learn how to win at roulette this way. Some are dedicated roulette analysis platforms, like this one but if you’re a more advanced stat person you can also use some general statistics software to support your analysis, like SPSS.
And remember, that every statistical result is an estimate by nature, therefore use statistical methods, like chi-squared test and confidence intervals to evaluate your findings.
Chi-squared test is a fast and easy way to determine, whether there is a chance that a wheel is biased. Here are the steps to perform the test:
Update: The Roulette calculator – determining if there is a wheel bias with chi-squared test calculator is not accessible in an embedded form please click on the link to access it.
In the Roulette calculator you can type in your own tracked results, and it helps you determine, whether there is a possibility of a bias.
You can do this test with groups of numbers also, if you suspect the wheel is biased towards a group. You have to threat the groups as units for the chi squared test and calculate the frequency accordingly. If you identify 5 groups, for instance, than you have to go like this: 1000/5=200 is the expected frequency and you only calculate Diffs for the 5 groups. Than you divide their sum by 200 and choose the right value from the chi-squared table to compare your results against (15.086 for 99% accuracy).
This wont tell you how to win at roulette right away, but it is a nice roulette trick to determine whether you should go on with your analysis. Note, that you do need further analysis to determine how big is the bias and which numbers does the wheel “favour”.
Discovering wheel bias is one thing and exploiting it is another, but you have to master both if you want to learn how to win at roulette reliably. Here are some general roulette tips for exploiting wheel bias:
Casinos usually keep themselves up-to-date on the techniques that have the potential to give players edge in their games. There are a few practices to trick players trying to learn how to win at roulette as well.
It is not at all a joyride to learn how to win at roulette, but if you have a keen eye for numbers, enough funds and free time, than it could be an interesting, and if you’re lucky and tenacious, lucrative endeavour to try. I hope my roulette tips and roulette tricks help, at least to decide whether you feel up for trying to learn how to win at roulette exploiting wheel biases.
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/If you’re not interested in how to win at roulette, but want to make money gambling some other way, check out my guide on how to make money like a professional gambler./
Last updated: 2015.10.21.